我国肉鸭价格波动趋势分析

Analysis on the Fluctuation Trend of Meat Duck Price in China

利用2014年1月—2019年5月肉鸭价格月度数据,分别运用ARIMA模型和HoltWinters模型对我国肉鸭价格进行拟合,并对未来24个月的价格数据进行预测。拟合结果表明,我国肉鸭价格总体呈现波动上升的趋势,且具有明显的季节性特征。综合预测结果来看,对于肉毛鸭价格预测更倾向于选择ARIMA模型。在没有外部因素冲击的情况下,我国肉鸭市场价格具有明显的季节价格波动规律,且波动幅度较小,维持相对平稳状态。而突发公共卫生事件会使肉鸭产品对冲击迅速发生价格响应,在短时间内加剧价格波动。

This article uses the monthly data of meat duck prices from January 2014 to May 2019,ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model to fit the price of meat duck in China,and predicts the price data in the next 24 months.The results showed that the price of meat ducks in China generally showed a rising trend and had obvious seasonal characteristics.According to the comprehensive forecast results,the ARIMA model was more preferred for the price prediction of meat ducks.Without the impact of external factors,the market price of meat ducks in China had obvious seasonal price fluctuation law,and the fluctuation range was relatively small,maintaining a relatively stable state.However,public health emergencies will make meat duck products respond to the impact quickly,which will aggravate the price fluctuation in a short time.