兰州市2012-2017年HIV/AIDS疫情空间分布特征分析

Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Correlation of HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou from 2012 to 2017

目的探讨兰州市2012-2017年艾滋病疫情的空间分布特征及趋势,为采取相应的防治措施提供科学依据。方法采取空间相关分析和时空扫描技术对2012-2017年的艾滋病疫情资料进行分析。结果2012-2017年兰州市新报告率高-高聚集区主要为城关区、安宁区、西固区、七里河区(西站附近街道、阿干镇),该区域HIV/AIDS累积新报告率为60.66/10万;低-高聚集区主要为皋兰县(中心乡,忠合镇)、七里河区(西果园镇,魏岭乡,彭家坪镇)、西固区(金沟乡)、榆中县(和平镇,来紫堡乡),该区域HIV/AIDS累积新报告率为21.26/10万。整体来看,高-高、低-高、低-低聚集区以城关区为中心呈辐射状分布。时空扫描结果显示:2012-2014年间在兰州市西北方向永登县、红古区部分乡镇及皋兰县部分乡镇存在一个最可能的低值聚集区域,LLR=86.87,RR=0.19,P<0.0001,该区域累积新报告率为17.27/10万;在2015-2017年间兰州市城关区及其附近七里河区(西果园镇西站街道,阿干镇,八里镇,魏岭乡)是一个主要的高值聚集区域,LLR=142.56,RR=2.37,P<0.0001,该区域累积新报告率为65.12/10万。结论兰州市HIV/AIDS发病率低于全国平均水平,增长有放缓趋势。应用时空扫描结果能够发现兰州市艾滋病疫情分布的区域差异,找出艾滋病发病的聚集区,为艾滋病防控提供高危区域目标。

Objective To explore the spatial distribution characteristics and correlation of HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou,Gansu province from 2012 to 2017,and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment measures.Methods Based on the population data of Lanzhou and the data of HIV/AIDS prevention and control system from 2012 to 2017,the spatial correlation analysisand space-time scan statistics analysis were carried out.Results Spatial Correlation Analysis showed that the new reporting rate in Lanzhou was high in 2012-2017-the high reporting areas were Chengguan District,Anning District,Xigu District,Qilihe District(streets near West Station,Argan town),the cumulative new reporting rate of HIVAIDS was 60.66 per 100,000 in this region;Low-high concentration areas are mainly Gaolan County(central township,Zhonghe town),Qilihe District(West Guoyuan,Hunan,weiling township,pengjiaping town),Xigu district(Jingou Township),Yuzhong County(Heping town,Laizibao township).The cumulative new HIV/AIDS reporting rate in this region is 21.26 per 100,000.On the whole,the high-high,low-high,low-low agglomerations distribute radially around Chengguan District.The results of spatio-temporal scanning showed that there was a most likely low value cluster area in the northwest of Lanzhou,Yongdeng County,Honggu District and Gaolan County from 2012 to 2014,LLR=86.87,RR=0.19,P<0.0001,The cumulative new reporting rate was 17.27 per 100,000 in this region;the Chengguan district of Lanzhou City and its nearby Qilihe District(West Guoyuan,Hunan West Station Street,Argan town,Bali town,weiling township)was a major high value gathering area from 2015 to 2017,LLR=142.56,RR=2.37,P<0.0001,the cumulative new reporting rate was 65.12/100,000.Conclusion The incidence of HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou is lower than the national average level,and the growth trend is slowing down.Combined with the spatial-time scan results,we can intuitively understand the regional differences in the AIDS epidemic situation in Lanzhou and find out high-risk clusters,and then strengthen the targeted prevention and control.