西南地区松属乔木对气候变化的响应

Responses of Pinus species to climate change in southwestern China

通过收集中国西南地区12种松属乔木的分布点数据,结合当前及未来(2070年)气候情景数据,基于最大熵模型预测松属乔木潜在地理分布,分析潜在分布区的环境特征,旨在为气候变化下松属乔木资源的保护以及可持续经营提供理论参考。结果表明:模型的受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)均大于0.8,预测精度达到“很准确”水平。12种松属乔木中,细叶云南松的潜在分布范围最窄,马尾松的分布范围最广。2070年代表性浓度路径4.5(representative concentration pathway 4.5,RCP4.5)情景下,12种松属乔木的适宜区在面积和空间上均发生了不同程度的变化,且整体上呈现向东偏北或西偏北方向扩张的趋势。乔松、思茅松、细叶云南松、云南松、高山松、华山松和油松的适宜分布区总体呈现扩张趋势,而细叶云南松和油松高适宜区面积则减小;巴山松、毛枝五针松、白皮松、华南五针松和马尾松的适宜区呈缩小趋势。8个主导环境因子在松属乔木适宜区内的平均变化范围分别为:年降水量647~2600 mm,最冷月最低气温-8~10℃,气温的季节性358~756,海拔281~3054 m,等温性25~45,气温日较差6~11℃,降水的季节性43~99,适宜区土壤质地主要为轻黏土、粉壤土和砂黏壤土。该结果对松属植物资源的保护、造林区规划以及可持续经营等具有一定指导意义。

Based on the occurrence data of 12 Pinus species in southwestern China and environmental data for current and future(2070)climate scenarios,we modeled the potential geographic distribution of the Pinus species using MaxEnt and analyzed the environmental characteristics of the potential distribution regions.This study aims to provide a theoretical reference for the protection and sustainable management of Pinus species resources under climate change.Results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of all 12 Pinus species was more than 0.8,suggesting that the MaxEnt model is highly reliable in simulating geographical distribution.Among the 12 Pinus species,the distribution range of Pinus yunnanensis var.tenuifolia was the narrowest and that of Pinus massoniana was the widest.Under the 2070 RCP4.5(representative concentration pathway 4.5)climate scenario,the suitable regions of 12 Pinus species have changed to varying degrees in terms of both area and space,and the overall trend expands northeast or northwest.The suitable regions of Pinus wallichiana,Pinus kesiya,Pinus yunnanensis var.tenuifolia,Pinus yunnanensis,Pinus densata,Pinus armandii,and Pinus tabuliformis are generally expanding,while the highly suitable regions of Pinus yunnanensis var.tenuifolia,and Pinus tabuliformis are decreasing.The suitable regions of Pinus tabuliformis var.henryi,Pinus wangii,Pinus bungeana,Pinus kwangtungensis,and Pinus massoniana are decreasing overall.The average variation range of 8 dominant environmental factors in the Pinus species suitable region is 647 mm≤annual precipitation≤2600 mm,-8℃≤minimum temperature of the coldest month≤10℃,358≤temperature seasonality≤756,281 m≤altitude≤3054 m,25≤isothermality≤45.6℃≤mean temperature diurnal range≤11℃,43≤precipitation seasonality≤99,and the soil texture of the suitable regions are mainly light clay,silt loam,and sandy clay loam.These results offer guiding significance for the protection of Pinus,afforestation planning,and sustainable management.