我国财政收入增速下滑分析

An Analysis of Declining Growth Rate of Fiscal Revenue from the Perspective of New Normal Economy

我国财政收入增速急剧下滑并进入个位数增长阶段引起了学界和社会的广泛关注。目前我国中口径财政收入弹性及其占GDP的比重有所下降,但大口径宏观税负并未根本性下降。我国财政收入增速下滑是必然现象,是发展阶段和改革红利释放的体现,但最优财政收入增速和比重并没有一个统一标准或者目标,需要在渐进式改革中不断调整从而逐步逼近最优值。在高质量发展阶段,我国财政收入体系与经济高质量发展尚存在一些不兼容现象,且微观主体税感强烈,迫切需要通过提升财政收入质量降低微观主体税感和受益感来拓展财政收入改革空间。财政收入增速下降存在地方政府债务风险、财政支出可持续性风险、政府治理风险和财政腾挪空间受到制约四大挑战。未来要有系统、质量和人本思维,强化顶层设计,通过收入支出联动改革,构建现代财政体制。

In recent years,the growth rate of our country's fiscal revenue has fallen sharply and entered the stage of single-digit growth,which has attracted wide attention from academic circles and society.In general,China's medium-caliber fiscal elasticity and its share of GDP have declined,but the macro-tax burden has not fundamentally declined.The decline of fiscal revenue growth rate is an inevitable phenomenon,which embodies the development stage and the release of reform dividend.But the optimal fiscal revenue growth rate and proportion do not have a unified standard,so china need to constantly adjust in the gradual reform to approach the optimal value step by step.In the stage of high-quality development,there are still some incompatible problem between our country's fiscal revenue system and high-quality economic development,and micro-entities's tax sense is strong,so it is urgent to reduce micro-entities'tax sense and benefit sense by improving the quality of financial revenue to expand the reform space of financial revenue.There are four major challenges:local government debt risk,fiscal expenditure sustainability risk,governance risk and fiscal space.In the future,China should have systematic,quality and people-oriented thinking,strengthen top-level design,and construct modern financial system through the linkage reform of income and expenditure.