中国农业保险补贴政策绩效评估:来自多期DID的经验证据

Researches on the Effectiveness of China's Agricultural Insurance Fiscal Subsidies Policy:Evidences from Quasi-experiments

笔者以我国农业保险补贴政策试点为一项准自然实验,借助多期DID、连续型DID和三重差分模型等方法,从农民人均纯收入、农民家庭经营纯收入视角研究了我国农业保险补贴政策的效果,且剖析这一政策效果的异质性特征和内在影响机理。研究结果表明:我国农业保险补贴政策对农民人均纯收入和农民家庭经营纯收入有显著正向影响,农业保险补贴政策显著提高了政策试点区域的农民人均纯收入和农民家庭经营纯收入;我国农业保险补贴政策的效果存在显著的异质性特征,中、西部地区的农业保险补贴政策对农民收入的提升效果明显高于东部地区,受灾程度较大地区的农业保险补贴政策的效果更加明显,收入提升效果几乎是受灾程度较小地区的两倍多;农业保险补贴政策显著提升了农户对农业保险的参与度,促进了农业保险发展,从而提升了农民收入。

With the quasi natural experiment of China's agricultural insurance fiscal subsidy policy,the paper studies the effectiveness of agricultural insurance fiscal subsidy policy in China from the perspective of farmers'per capita net income and farmers'household operating net income,and analyzes the heterogeneity and influence mechanism of the policy effect using DID model and triple difference model.The results show that:China's agricultural fiscal insurance subsidy policy has a significant positive effect on the per capita net income of farmers and the farmers'family operating net income,and the agricultural insurance fiscal subsidy policy significantly improves the per capita net income of farmers and family operating net income in the policy pilot areas;the effect of agricultural insurance fiscal subsidy policy in China has significant heterogeneity characteristics,and in central and western regions,the effect of the subsidy policy on farmers'income is significantly higher than that in the eastern region,and the effect of agricultural insurance fiscal subsidy policy in the areas that suffer more from natural disaster is more obvious,and the effect is almost twice as much as that in the areas that suffer less;the agricultural insurance fiscal subsidy policy significantly improves the participation of farmers in agricultural insurance,promotes the development of agricultural insurance,and thus improves the income of farmers.