“黑天鹅”事件后的“反脆弱性”思考

Thinking of Anti-fragility after Black Swan Incident

“黑天鹅”事件是指大的混乱和波动性事件,这类事件的发生不在人类预期范围内,突发且破坏性强,如果在这种混乱和振荡中获益并延续生存和实现繁荣,就是“反脆弱性”的特性。以“毒物兴奋效应”为例,“反脆弱性”超越了复原力和强韧性并逆势生长,而人类在每次疫情发生过后会研制出疫苗,增强人的抵抗力;从进化的角度,个体的脆弱以及牺牲,于整体来讲是反脆弱的、进化所必须的、是对整体改善有益的;从“干预”的角度,过度的帮助会使事情陷入更复杂的状态,无助于事情的解决,限量供应信息并以更自然的方式获取,才不至于将重要信息和信号看作是随机和没有意义的元素,太多的数据和“科学”证据,可能掩盖了人们对于疫情的直觉反应或工作敏感度,这是信息过度的结果。

"Black Swan" events refer to major chaotic and volatile events.Such events occur outside the scope of human expectations,and they are sudden and destructive.If you benefit from such chaos and oscillations and continue to survive and achieve prosperity,it is "Anti-fragility" characteristics.Taking the "hormesis" as an example, "Anti-fragility" goes beyond resilience and toughness and grows against the trend,and humans will develop vaccines to increase human resistance after each outbreak;from the evolutionary perspective,individual fragility and sacrifice are anti-fragile for the whole,necessary for evolution,and beneficial to overall improvement;from the perspective of "intervention",excessive help will cause things to fall into a more complicated state and will not help solve problems.However,the limited supply of information and the acquisition in a more natural way will not regard important information and signals as random and meaningless elements.Too much data and "scientific" evidence may cover up people’s intuitive response or work sensitivity to "epidemic",which is the result of over information.