特朗普政府中东政策的特点

The Characteristics of Trump Administration's Middle East Policy

特朗普政府在很大程度上逆转了奥巴马政府的中东政策,政策重心从叙利亚转回伊朗。在叙利亚问题上,特朗普抛开了意识形态顾虑,接受了巴沙尔政权的存续和俄罗斯的长期角色,从而摆脱了奥巴马政府在反恐和民主化之间犹豫不决造成的两难处境。在消灭了“伊斯兰国”后,通过两次不彻底的撤军,特朗普政府重建了美国在叙利亚的离岸平衡角色,基本甩掉了“叙利亚包袱”。为了使彻底解决伊朗核问题与重塑地区秩序毕其功于一役,特朗普政府对伊朗发起了“极限施压”,企图主要通过单边制裁切断伊朗石油出口制造的国内经济财政压力作为核心手段迫使伊朗在核武器、导弹和地区扩张等诸多方面做出全面让步。然而,地区和国际局势的复杂性导致的系列变化越来越超出了特朗普政府的预计和控制。随着大选临近美国在短期内很难实现其“极限施压”目标,反而面临伊朗逐步升级的反向极限施压。

By bring back the focus from Syria to Iran, the Trump Administration has reversed Obama administration’s Middle East policysince taking office. On Syria, ideological concern was no longer a restriction, the reality that the Bashir regime would survive and Russia’s presence would not be removed in short term were accepted.In this way, the Trump administration got ridof the dilemma between anti-terrorism and promoting democratization which trapped the Obama administration so much, with only one end to creep down the IS as soon as possible. After defeating the IS, Trump pushed his administration to get rid of the Syrian civil war.After two incomplete withdrawals, Trump got to rebuild America’s role as an offshore balancer and shake off the "Syria burden"on the US. He changed his focus to Iran thereafter and set the elimination of all Iranian forces from Syria as one of the main objectives of re-discussing the Iran Nuclear Deal. In order to force Iran to accept a new agreement that included new restrictions on its development and proliferation of ballistic missiles and the expansion of its influence across the region, the Trump administration launched a "Maximum Pressure Campaign" through comprehensive sanctions, especially a complete embargo on its oil export, to pose heavy pressure on Iran’s domestic economy and its budget. However, US policy goals can hardly be reached unilaterally in any short time, while facing increasingly pressure and risks from Iranian’s countermeasures.