基于三方利益的PPP高速公路项目最低收入担保界限研究

Study on Minimum Income Guarantee Limit for PPP Highway Projects Based on Tripartite Interests

最低收入担保界限的高低会对债权人、社会资本以及政府的利益产生极大的影响,目前文献多以两方利益为出发点进行分析,缺乏对三方利益的综合考虑。基于此,本文建立了一种基于实物期权的模型,通过设置符合债权人、社会资本以及政府利益的约束条件,利用蒙特卡洛模拟的方法确定符合债权人、社会资本和政府利益的最低担保收入下限和上限的最优值,并用算例说明了模型的应用。算例结果表明该模型可以保证债权人收益无风险,在满足社会资本方最低投资回报率的同时避免了政府的收益保证出现超额收益输送的情况。该研究不仅有助于债权人对项目偿债能力的评估,也为政府制定合理的保障政策和社会资本的投资决策提供参考依据。

The minimum income guarantee limit will have a great impact on the interests of creditors,social capital and the government.At present,most of the literatures focus on the interests of the two parties,but lack of comprehensive consideration of the interests of the three parties.Based on this,this paper establishes a RO-based model that uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine the optimal values of the minimum guaranteed income floor and ceiling consistent with the interests of creditors,social capital,and the government by setting constraints that are consistent with the interests of creditors,social capital,and the government,and illustrates the application of the model with a numerical example.The results of the example show that the model can ensure that the creditor’s income is risk-free,and that the minimum rate of return on investment of social capital side is satisfied,and the excess return transmission of the government's income guarantee is avoided.This study not only helps creditors to evaluate the debt paying ability of the project,but also provides a reference for the government to formulate reasonable security policies and social capital investment decisions.