基于SEIR模型的高校新冠肺炎疫情传播风险管控研究

Study on Risk Management and Control of COVID-19 Epidemic Spreading in Universities Based on SEIR Model

在疫情防控常态化背景下,为确保教师复工、学生复学和学校安全运行,针对高校食堂、礼堂、教学楼、宿舍等重点区域,分析新冠肺炎疫情传播风险。考虑易感者、潜伏者、感染者和移出者4类人群及相互转化关系,基于改进的SEIR模型建立高校重点区域疫情传播风险模型,运用Python开展仿真实验,揭示高校复学后重点区域新冠病毒传播的动力学特征,对比分析有管控措施和无管控措施的差别。研究结果表明:通过实施管控措施,减少感染者和潜伏者与易感者的接触数量,降低单次接触传染率,感染者和潜伏者的峰值数量分别减小60%和74%,有效控制了高校重点区域新冠肺炎疫情的传播。

In order to ensure that teachers return to work,students return to school and the safe operation of the school,it takes the canteen,auditorium,teaching building,dormitory and other key areas in universities as research object to analyze COVID-19 spreading risk on the background of normalization of epidemic prevention and control.Four types of population,namely susceptible,latent,infected and removed,are considered.Then,the risk model of epidemic spreading in key areas of universities is established based on the improved SEIR model,and the simulation experiment is carried out by Python to reveal dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic spreading after university resumption and to compare and analyze the differences between control measures and no control measures.The results show that:COVID-19 epidemic spreading in key areas of universities is reduced by 60%and 74%respectively through the implementation of control measures to reduce the number of infected persons and latent persons exposed to susceptible populations.