ECMWF对广安地区晴雨预报性能检验及订正方法分析

Verification and Revised Analysis of ECMWF High Resolution Numerical Model in Guang'an Weather Forecast

为了解ECMWF高分辨率数值预报模式(以下简称"EC")对广安地区晴雨预报性能,分析订正方法,提高预报质量,对2015—2017年广安地区72 h内的EC晴雨预报进行预报性能检验。结果表明:72 h内EC晴雨预报准确率整体较高,空报率是影响预报准确率的主要因素;预报准确率夜间高于白天,空报率夜间低于白天,且随着时间的延长,准确率呈下降趋势,空报率呈上升趋势;漏报率低,且无明显的时效变化。根据订正指标进行订正预报,平均准确率为79.2%~84.0%,较未订正前上升5.3%~21.5%,具有较高的参考价值。

An ECMWF high-resolution numerical model(hereinafter referred to as EC)was adopted to better understand and improve the forecast performance in Guang'an City.It was verified and analyzed based on the weather forecast data within 72 h in 2015—2017.The results show that the EC forecast is most accurate in 72 h,and the vacancy rate is the main affecting factor of the forecast accuracy.The forecast is more accurate at night than in daytime,and the vacancy rate is lower at night.The accuracy rate is lowering as time goes,and the vacancy rate is rising.The miss rate is low,and there is not any obvious time-dependent change.The average accuracy is 79.2~84.0%through the revised forecast indicators,which is 5.3%~21.5%higher than the unrevised indicators,offering a high reference.