中国农村极端贫困的动态测度

Dynamic Measurement of Extreme Poverty in Rural China

文章利用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)2004-2015年面板数据,使用收入贫困与多维贫困方法测度中国农村极端贫困家庭动态演化,并对两种测度方法进行综合比较。结果发现:(1)我国整体脱贫效果显著,贫困密度和广度降低,但贫困深度增加,按照国家贫困线标准,收入贫困缺口指数从46%上升到56.9%,多维贫困平均剥夺深度在k=20%及以上维度时呈上升趋势;(2)收入贫困测度与多维贫困测度方法优势互补,约存在36.68%的一致与63.16%的差异;(3)我国贫困结构发生了较大变化,医疗保险减贫效果最为明显,生产性资产、教育、医疗等难题仍需攻克。建议贫困的识别标准应逐渐从单一收入标准扩展到多维指标领域,并从整体上把控收入分配差距不断扩大的趋势,采取多维扶贫如补贴与实物补助等方式消除长期贫困。

By using panel data of China Health and Nutrition Survey from 2004 to 2015, this paper applies income poverty and multidimensional poverty to analyze the dynamic changes in extreme poverty rural areas, and also compares the two measurement methods comprehensively. The result shows that, firstly, China’s poverty alleviation effect is remarkable, and poverty has been reduced in both intensity and breadth, but the depth of poverty has increased: According to the national poverty line, the income poverty gap index has risen from 46% to 56.9%, and when K equals 20% or above, the average deprivation depth of multi-dimensional poverty is on the rise;secondly, the income poverty measure and multi-dimensional poverty measure have complementary advantages, roughly with 36.68% consistency and 63.16% difference;thirdly, great changes have taken place in China’s poverty structure, and the poverty reduction effect of medical insurance is the most obvious, while the problems such as productive assets, education and medical treatment still need to be solved. It is suggested that the poverty identification standard should be gradually extended from single income standard to multi-dimensional index field, that the trend of widening income distribution gap should be controlled as a whole, and that multi-dimensional poverty alleviation measures such as subsidies and in-kind subsidies should be adopted to eliminate long-term poverty.