基于公交专用道的准点到站预测方法

Prediction method of punctual bus based on bus lanes

公交准时定点到站是衡量公交服务质量的重要指标,也是居民公交出行的最大期盼。公交日常运营能产生海量的GPS定位数据,运用海量公交车辆GPS数据,基于站点、路段及线路维度,精准计算公交车辆运行时长及速度变化特征,并计算公交运行时间的可靠度,从而评估公交准点到站的可靠性。以厦门市公交专用道的开通为背景,提出基于公交专用道背景的公交准点到站预测方法,预测公交专用道上公交线路的定点到站时间,实现公交专用道沿线线路的“定点发车,准时到站”目标。

The punctual bus is an important factor for the promotion of public transport services,and is also the biggest expectation of residents.The daily operation of the bus generates a large amount of GPS positioning data.This paper uses the GPS data of the mass transit vehicle to accurately calculate the running time and speed variation characteristics of the bus based on the site,section and line dimension,and to calculate the reliability of the bus running time to evaluate the punctual bus.Based on the implement of Xiamen bus lanes,a punctual bus prediction method based on bus lanes is proposed to predict the fixed-point arrival time of bus lanes,and to realize the“fixed-point departures and on-time arrivals”along the bus lanes.