基于系统动力学的跨境电商生态系统动力机制研究

Dynamic Mechanism of Cross-border E-commerce Ecosystem Based on System Dynamics

以跨境电商生态系统为研究对象,通过分析影响跨境电商生态系统发展的内部及外部动力,提出动力机制概念模型;在定性分析的基础上,运用Vensim PLE软件对跨境电商生态系统发展趋势进行仿真,并通过改变政策扶持因素、技术水平因素和企业自身因素分析不同因素对跨境电商生态系统发展的动态影响。仿真结果表明,政府通过加强海关监管力度对跨境电商生态系统发展的促进作用最大,其次是加强商品检验力度和提高税收优惠;信息化水平的提升对认证管理水平和支付安全程度的提升有一定的促进作用;跨境电商平台发展水平及跨境电商物流发展水平的提升均可以增强跨境电商竞争力,促进跨境电商生态系统发展。

A conceptual model of dynamic mechanism is proposed by analyzing the internal and external forces that influence the development of cross-border e-commerce ecosystem.On the basis of qualitative analysis,the development trend of cross-border e-commerce ecosystem is simulated by Vensim PLE,and the impact of different factors analyzed by changing policy support factors,technological level factors and enterprises’own factors.The simulation results show that the government plays a stronger role in promoting cross-border e-commerce industry through strengthening customs supervision than strengthening commodity inspection and improving tax incentives.The development of information technology can promote the level of certification management and payment security.The improvement of cross-border e-commerce platform and cross-border logistics development can enhance the competitiveness of cross-border e-commerce and promote the development of cross-border e-commerce ecosystem.