新冠肺炎疫情下的石油市场回顾与展望

Review and Prospect of the Oil Market under COVID-19

2020年,受新冠肺炎疫情影响,世界经济遭受重创,全球石油需求大幅萎缩,国际油价出现史无前例的负价格,基准油价差和价格结构宽幅波动。疫情后半段,随着欧佩克开启历史最高规模的减产协议,过剩石油库存逐渐消化,国际油价止跌反弹,但总体仍低位徘徊。后疫情时代,全球政治经济格局将进入新一轮动荡和博弈期,百年未有之大变局将深刻影响国际石油市场,未来世界石油需求总体维持低速增长,石油供应则面临较大不确定性,炼油业或经历更漫长的寒冬,国际石油市场格局面临深刻而复杂的调整。

In 2020,affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,the world economy was badly hit,the global oil demand shrank sharply,unprecedentedly the international oil price dipped for a moment below zero,and the benchmark oil prices spread and pricing structure fluctuated widely.In the second half of the epidemic,as OPEC implemented the largest production reduction agreement in history,excess oil stocks were gradually digested;the international oil price has since stopped falling and rebounded,but generally remains low.In the post-epidemic era,the global political and economic pattern will enter a new round of turbulence and game period,and these once-in-a-century great changes will have a profound impact on the international oil market.In the future,the world oil demand will maintain a low growth rate,and the oil supply will face greater uncertainty.The oil refining industry may experience a longer winter,and the pattern of the international oil market will face profound and complex adjustments.