江苏省新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊数影响因素的灰色关联分析

Grey Correlation Analysis of Influencing Factors of the Number of COVID-19 Diagnosis in Jiangsu

目的:分析江苏省13市新冠肺炎确诊数的主要影响因素,为新冠肺炎防控工作奠定基础。方法:采用灰色关联分析法对江苏省13市新冠肺炎确诊数影响因素进行分析,数据来源于2018年江苏省卫生和计划生育统计年鉴等。结果:新冠肺炎确诊数与各地医疗资源水平呈现强正相关性,注册护士数量、执业医生数量与新冠肺炎确诊数的灰色关联度分别为0.895和0.873,灰色关联度排序分别为排第一和第二;新冠肺炎确诊数与人口因素呈现强正相关性,年末常住人口数与新冠肺炎确诊数灰色关联度排序为0.839,灰色关联度排序为第三;现阶段各市与武汉流通量因素对新冠肺炎确诊数影响一般,江苏移动用户到访武汉数量、武汉移动用户到访江苏数量与新冠肺炎确诊数灰色关联度分别为0.760和0.655,灰色关联度排序分别为第七和第八。结论:应保障抗疫一线资源充足,加强医护人员处理突发公共卫生事件专业水平;加强大基数人口城市信息及时性与透明性,树立政府权威形象;扩大排查范围与深度,重点保护特殊人群。

Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of the of the number of COVID-19 diagnosis in Jiangsu,to lay the foundation for the prevention and control of COVID-19.Methods:The data came from the Jiangsu Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook(2018),etc..Factors affecting the number of COVID-19 diagnosis were analyzed by grey correlation analysis.Results:The number of COVID-19 diagnosis had a strong positive correlation with the level of medical resources in various regions.The gray correlations between the number of registered nurses,the number of practicing doctors and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 were 0.895 and 0.873 respectively,and the gray correlation ranked first and second respectively.There was a strong positive correlation between the number of COVID-19 diagnosis and population factors.At the end of the year,the number of permanent residents and the number of COVID-19 diagnosis were ranked by the gray correlation degree of 0.839,and the gray correlation degree ranked third.At present,the relationship of Jiangsu and Wuhan had a moderate impact on the number of COVID-19 diagnosis in Jiangsu.The number of Jiangsu mobile users visiting Wuhan,the number of Wuhan mobile users visiting Jiangsu and COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.760 and 0.655 respectively,and the ranking of the gray correlation were seventh and eighth respectively.Conclusion:It is necessary to ensure sufficient front-line resources for the fight against the epidemic,strengthen the professional level of medical staff in handling public health emergencies;strengthen the timeliness and transparency of information in cities with large base populations,and establish an image of government authority;expand the scope and depth of investigations,and focus on protecting special populations.