中国能源结构与产业结构发展现状及灰色关联关系研究

The Grey Correlation Analysis of China's Energy Structure and Industrial Structure

基于2000~2018年相关数据,透彻剖析中国能源结构与产业结构发展现状及其演变过程;利用灰色关联分析法,构建中国能源结构与产业结构灰色关联分析模型,探究中国能源结构与产业结构之间关联关系。结果表明:能源结构和产业结构虽有各自独立发展变化的一面,但二者之间更有相互影响与促进的一面。能源消费量持续增加,原煤、原油消费量比例较大,天然气和其他能源虽然增速明显,但占总能源消费量比例较小;2012年中国国民经济的主导产业已由第二产业转移到第三产业,主要是由工业占比下降,批发零售和住宿餐饮业、生活和其他行业占比增加导致的。虽然中国能源结构与产业结构之间具有显著相关性,但能源结构与产业结构之间存在明显不均衡、不合理现象。因此,结合能源结构与产业结构自身发展特征,协调两结构之间关系,是实现中国经济可持续发展需要解决的核心问题。最后,据此分析结果提出合理的政策建议。

On the basis of summarizing the evolution law of energy structure and industrial structure,the interaction relationship between China's energy structure and industrial structure is explored with the help of grey correlation analysis method during the period of 2000-2018.The results show that the energy structure and industrial structure not only have its own characteristics to develop and change independently,but also have mutual influence and promotion to each other.The total energy consumption continued to increase,among which raw coal and crude oil accounted for a large proportion,while the proportion of natural gas and other energy is small,but the growth rate is rapid.In 2012,the leading industry of China’s national economy was transferred from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry,which was mainly caused by the decline in the proportion of industry,and the increase in the proportion of Wholesale and retail trades,Hotels and catering services,Life and others industries.There is a significant correlation between China's energy structure and industrial structure,but the issues of imbalance and lack of coordination between economic growth and energy consumption are critical.Further and systematic research on the coordinated development of energy structure and industrial structure is of great significance for China’s sustainable economic development.In conclusion,based on the above research,the paper puts forward the conclusion and suggestion.