我国农村金融排斥影响因素的空间相关性分析

Spatial Correlation Analysis of Factors Affecting Financial Exclusion in China′s Rural Areas

缓解农村金融排斥程度是促进我国农村经济发展、实现全面建成小康社会的有力支持。本文采用国际上公认的六维评价体系构建我国农村金融排斥评价指标体系,根据2008-2017年我国30个省份(不包括港奥台藏)的面板数据,采用变异系数法测算农村金融排斥指数,并利用SDM模型对我国农村金融排斥影响因素的空间特征进行探究。研究表明:我国各省农村金融排斥空间相关性显著。在考察期间内,GDP贷款贡献率、居民受教育程度、居民可支配收入以及产业结构影响本地区农村金融排斥程度,农村就业人员规模、居民受教育程度以及居民可支配收入具有较强的外溢作用。鉴于此,加强各地区农村金融合作,提高经济增长速度与促进产业结构合理调整相结合,提高农村居民教育水平等,有利于缓解我国农村金融排斥程度。

Alleviating the degree of rural financial exclusion is the key link in promoting the development of rural economy and in building a well-off society in an all-round way.This paper adopts the six-dimensional evaluation system that are recognized internationally to construct the evaluation index system of rural financial exclusion in China.According to the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet),the coefficient of variation method is used to measure the index of rural financial exclusion.At the same time,the spatial characteristics of influence factors of rural financial exclusion in China are explored by using SDM model.The research result shows that the spatial correlation of rural financial exclusion is significant.During the research period,the contribution rate of GDP loans,residents′education level,residents′disposable income and the industrial structure influence the degree of financial exclusion in rural areas,in addition,the scale of rural employment,residents′education level and residents′disposable income have a strong spillover effect.In view of this,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as strengthening rural financial cooperation in various regions,combining the increase of economic growth rate with rational adjustment of industrial structure,so as to alleviate the degree of financial exclusion in China′s rural areas.