溢出效应视角下我国各类能源回弹效应的测算与分析

Calculation and Analysis of Rebound Effects of Different Types of Energy in China from the Perspective of Spillover Effect

为从空间溢出效应视角测算我国各类能源的回弹效应,基于全球能源-环境分析模型,引入多区域能源回弹效应测算模块,测算并发现我国各类能源回弹效应的空间溢出效应特征.结果表明,不同能源的生产侧回弹效应为30.57%~86.67%,其中成品油与电力的能源利用效率改进对经济拉动效应明显且回弹效应较低,是我国提升能源利用效率时应重点考虑的能源类型.此外,能源回弹效应的空间溢出影响与能源贸易联系密切,并且空间溢出效应的反馈随着总体能源利用效率水平提升而增强.由于空间溢出效应的存在,制定符合我国特色的最优化能效策略应考虑我国能源结构特点及其与其他国家的贸易联系.

This paper explores the rebound effects of different types of energy from the perspective of spatial spillover effects in China based on the global energy-environment model with introducing a multi-region energy rebound effect measurement module. The rebounded effects are further decomposed into effects from production side,single region and multi-region,which reveals the comprehensive multi-energy rebound effect in multi-dimension from a spatial perspective. The results show that the rebound of different energy types ranged from 30. 57% to 86. 67%,among which the rebound effects of energy efficiency improvement of refined oil and electric power are low and have a strong positive effect on economic development,indicating that refined oil and electric power are the ideal type of energy to improve energy efficiency in China. The spatial spillover effect of energy rebound effect is related to energy trade,with the feedback of spatial spillovers increasing along with the improvement of overall energy efficiency. The results indicate that energy efficiency optimization strategies should consider selection of energy types. Specifically,oil products and electric power,as secondary power,are ideal energy types for China’s energy efficiency optimization from the perspective of economic performance and rebound effect. At the same time,due to the existence of spillover effect,we should pay attention to the energy structure and trade relations among various countries and formulate the optimal energy efficiency strategy according to the nation’s characteristics,so as to achieve the goal of global energy governance.