江苏省水稻主产区水稻种植面积时空动态变化分析

Analysis on the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of rice planting area in the main rice production area of Jiangsu province

【目的】揭示江苏省水稻种植时空格局及动态变化特征,评价其稳定生产水平和种植结构的空间变化规律,为江苏省水稻生产空间布局的优化调整和可持续发展提供决策依据。【方法】文章选择江苏省水稻主产区50个1∶50000比例尺标准地形图图幅单元为研究区域,基于江苏省5 m空间分辨率耕地遥感数据库,利用2011-2019年水稻生长期内多源遥感卫星影像,提取研究区当年的水稻种植面积及空间分布信息。运用数理统计和GIS空间分析功能,研究水稻面积变化幅度、变异系数以及转非水稻面积的时空分布特征,继而分析2011-2019年水稻种植面积的时空动态变化。【结果】研究区内50%的地区水稻种植面积仍然保持相对稳定,42%的地区水稻种植面积缓慢下降,仅8%的地区水稻种植面积急剧下降。2011年以来,累计有11.6万hm^2水稻田逐年转为非耕地或持续种植其他作物,占2011年研究区内水稻种植面积的13.7%。【结论】2011-2019年研究区内水稻种植面积变化趋势线斜率为-0.88,总体呈下降趋势,水稻面积平均变化率为-1.03%,变异系数为2.99%。

[Purpose]The object of the research is to reveal the spatial-temporal pattern and dynamic change characteristics of rice cultivation in Jiangsu province,to evaluate the stable production level and the spatial variation of the planting structure,and to provide decisionmaking basis for the optimization adjustment and sustainable development of rice production spatial layout in Jiangsu province.[Method]The research selects 50 standard topographic map units(1:50000)in the main rice production area of Jiangsu province as the research area,on the basis of the 5 m spatial resolution remote sensing database of cultivated land in Jiangsu province,uses multi-source remote sensing satellite images during the rice growth period from 2011 to 2019 to extract information on the spatial distribution of rice planting area in the relevant year.With the functions of mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rice area changes,coefficients of variation and irreversible rice area are studied.The spatial and temporal dynamic changes of rice planting area from 2011 to 2019 are analyzed afterward.[Result]The rice planting area in 50%of the study area remained stable while in 42%decreased slowly.The rice planting area in 8%of study area decreased sharply.Since 2011,a total of 116.358 hectares of rice fields have been converted to non-cultivated land or other crops have been continuously planted,which accounts for 13.7%of the rice planting area in the study area in 2011.[Conclusion]The slope of trend line of rice planting area in the study area from 2011 to 2019 is-0.88,which shows a general downward trend.The average change rate of rice area is-1.03%,and the overall coefficient of variation is 2.99%.