摘要
联合地区层面与行业层面的机器人应用数据,本文考察了机器人应用对中国劳动力市场的影响。研究发现:机器人应用规模扩大会显著降低本地未来一年的劳动力就业水平,尤其是易被机器替代的行业的就业水平。劳动力市场结构会进一步影响机器人应用所导致的"技术性失业"现象,在低学历员工占比较高、劳动力保护较弱及市场化程度较高的地区,这一现象表现更为明显。虽然机器人应用导致了就业挤出效应,但对于不同的地区和行业,机器人应用也具有显著的就业溢出效应:一方面,机器人应用导致劳动力在不同行业和地区之间发生转移,提高了本地下游行业、本地劳动力替代性较高的其他行业及外地同行业的劳动就业水平;另一方面,机器人应用在中长期内一定程度上促进了本地同行业的就业水平,也提高了本地同行业的劳动力报酬水平。本文研究为中国劳动力市场的结构变化提供了更精细的证据,指出了在制定机器人产业政策时需考虑到其抑制就业的影响,但可着眼于不同行业地区的具体特征,协调机器人应用和就业的关系。
Based on robot applications at the regional and industry levels, this paper studies the impact of robot installations on labor market to evaluate the applicability of Keynes’ s "technical unemployment" in the Chinese market. This paper finds that: The robot installations significantly reduce labor employment in the next year, especially in industries that are more replaceable by machines. The impact is more pronounced in regions with more low-educated employees, weaker labor protections and higher marketization. Robot installations also have spillover effects on employment. In the short term, robot installations lead to an increase in labor employment of local downstream, other industries with high robot replaceability, as well as the focal industry outside. In the medium and long term, robot installations promote the labor employment in the focal industry. Finally, robot installations also improve labor salaries. This paper enhances the literatures in the area of robot installations and labor market, provides further empirical evidence for the structural change of China’s labor market in a deeper level of industry-areas. This paper indicates that the robot industry policy makers should care about the negative impacts of robot policies on social employment and the special characteristics of local regions and industries. At the same time, this paper also indicates that the government can reconcile robot installations and employment by enhancing the human capital and protections of labors, or market institution constructing.
作者
孔高文
刘莎莎
孔东民
KONG Gao-wen;LIU Sha-sha;KONG Dong-min(School of Management,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Management,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan430074,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第8期80-98,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“薪酬差距的影响因素与经济后果:制度环境、地区差异与企业特征”(批准号71802061)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于文本分析与机器学习的分析师行为决策研究:影响因素、利益冲突与经济后果”(批准号71972088)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于结构性数据分析的我国系统性金融风险防范体系研究”(批准号17ZDA073)。
关键词
机器人
就业
技术性失业
溢出效应
劳动力转移
robot
employment
technical unemployment
spillover effect
labor transfer