机器人与就业——基于行业与地区异质性的探索性分析

Robots and Labor Employment——An Empirical Investigation Based on Heterogeneity of Industries and Regions

联合地区层面与行业层面的机器人应用数据,本文考察了机器人应用对中国劳动力市场的影响。研究发现:机器人应用规模扩大会显著降低本地未来一年的劳动力就业水平,尤其是易被机器替代的行业的就业水平。劳动力市场结构会进一步影响机器人应用所导致的"技术性失业"现象,在低学历员工占比较高、劳动力保护较弱及市场化程度较高的地区,这一现象表现更为明显。虽然机器人应用导致了就业挤出效应,但对于不同的地区和行业,机器人应用也具有显著的就业溢出效应:一方面,机器人应用导致劳动力在不同行业和地区之间发生转移,提高了本地下游行业、本地劳动力替代性较高的其他行业及外地同行业的劳动就业水平;另一方面,机器人应用在中长期内一定程度上促进了本地同行业的就业水平,也提高了本地同行业的劳动力报酬水平。本文研究为中国劳动力市场的结构变化提供了更精细的证据,指出了在制定机器人产业政策时需考虑到其抑制就业的影响,但可着眼于不同行业地区的具体特征,协调机器人应用和就业的关系。

Based on robot applications at the regional and industry levels, this paper studies the impact of robot installations on labor market to evaluate the applicability of Keynes’ s "technical unemployment" in the Chinese market. This paper finds that: The robot installations significantly reduce labor employment in the next year, especially in industries that are more replaceable by machines. The impact is more pronounced in regions with more low-educated employees, weaker labor protections and higher marketization. Robot installations also have spillover effects on employment. In the short term, robot installations lead to an increase in labor employment of local downstream, other industries with high robot replaceability, as well as the focal industry outside. In the medium and long term, robot installations promote the labor employment in the focal industry. Finally, robot installations also improve labor salaries. This paper enhances the literatures in the area of robot installations and labor market, provides further empirical evidence for the structural change of China’s labor market in a deeper level of industry-areas. This paper indicates that the robot industry policy makers should care about the negative impacts of robot policies on social employment and the special characteristics of local regions and industries. At the same time, this paper also indicates that the government can reconcile robot installations and employment by enhancing the human capital and protections of labors, or market institution constructing.