高铁开通、地区特定要素与边缘地区的发展

High-speed Train, Immobility Factors and the Development of Periphery Regions

高铁的开通加速了区域一体化进程,促进了中心地区对边缘地区的正向溢出效应,同时也增加了中心地区对边缘地区的负向集聚阴影效应,因此学术界对高铁开通如何影响边缘地区经济发展一直存在着争议。本文从边缘地区是否拥有地区特定要素着手,构建空间一般均衡模型并提出理论假说,采用2004—2016年中国259个边缘地区的面板数据进行倾向值双重差分和三重差分法经验检验。研究发现:高铁开通加剧了地区特定要素贫瘠的边缘地区的衰落,同时也可能会促进地区特定要素丰裕的边缘地区的崛起;高铁开通只是边缘地区崛起的必要非充分条件,边缘地区相对规模越大、非农产业规模越高以及距离核心城市越远,则高铁的开通就越有可能改变边缘地区的发展轨迹。政府应当结合地区特定要素资源空间分布来确定高铁空间布局,同时警惕高铁开通引起的边缘地区间或者城市群内边缘城市间收入差距扩大的新困境。对于地区特定要素丰裕的边缘地区,政府应当市场化配套相关基础设施以吸引流动性要素的流入来促进其崛起;对于地区特定要素缺乏的边缘地区,政府应当政策性配套相关基础设施以吸引流动性要素的柔性流入来避免其进一步衰落。

The construction of inter-regional transport infrastructure has accelerated the process of regional integration. However, there is a great debate about whether high-speed train could promotes the economic development of the periphery areas or not, because the central area has both positive spillover effect and negative shadow effect on the periphery regions. By building a spatial general equilibrium model which includes immobility factor, using panel data of 259 periphery areas in 2004-2016 with kernel-based propensity score matching diff-indiff and triple difference estimation, we find that: ①If the periphery area without immobility factor, the periphery area will all when the high-speed train bypass. However, the high-speed train will promote the rise of the periphery area if the periphery area with plentiful immobility factor. ②The periphery area has immobility factor is just the necessary but not sufficient condition for periphery areas rise when the high-speed train bypass. The higher the scale of the immobility factor, region size and share of non-agricultural industry, the higher the possibility that the high-speed rail will change the development of periphery areas. The implication includes following. Firstly, we should know immobility factor distribution before decides spatial geographical layout of high-speed train, which means regions should have differentiated development goals. The gap between the periphery areas instead of the gap between regions should be attention. Secondly, market-oriented supporting related infrastructure should be developed to attract the inflow of mobility factors and promote the rise of periphery areas with rich specific factors. Thirdly,policies related infrastructure should be supported to attract the inflow of mobility factors and avoid or alleviate the decline of periphery areas with scarce specific factors.