新疆人口与经济协调发展及空间分布研究

Research of coordinated development and spatial relationship between population and economy in Xinjiang

采用人口-经济增长弹性、地理集中度、不一致性指数和空间自相关分析法等研究方法,对新疆自治区15个地州市2000—2015年的人口与经济协调发展及空间分布关系进行分析.结果表明,在总体规模上,新疆地区作为整体,2000—2015年人口与经济增长具有较好的协调关系,但各地州市人口增长与经济增长的协调程度存在比较明显的差异.从地理集中度来看,经济集中度在新疆不同地区之间表现出差异性,经济聚集度在大部分地区低于人口聚集度;从空间关联性看,Moran指数由2000年的-0.2683上升为2015年的0.7532,说明在这2个时间断面上该地区人口与经济不一致性存在显著的空间自相关特征,即这种特征从显著的负相关关系到正相关关系,从空间分散到空间聚集转变.新疆内部人口分布与经济发展不一致的地州市数量不断减少,即各地州市人口与经济的地域差异逐步缩小.

In this paper,three cities and 12 prefectures in Xinjiang are taken as the research object,and the elasticity of population-economic growth and the degree of geographical concentration are adopted.The relationship between population and economic coordinated development and spatial distribution in this area during the past 16 years was studied by inconsistency index and spatial autocorrelation analysis.The results show that,in terms of overall scale,the overall population growth and economic growth in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2015 maintain a good coordinated relationship.However,there are obvious differences in the degree of coordination between population growth and economic growth in various states and cities.From the point of view of geographical concentration,the degree of economic concentration among different regions shows certain differences,most of them.The population aggregation in the district is higher than that in the economic agglomeration.From the point of view of spatial correlation,the Moran's index increased from-0.2683 in 2000 to 0.7532 in 2015,indicating that there is a significant spatial autocorrelation between population and economic inconsistency in the two time sections.That is to say,this characteristic changes from significant negative cities with inconsistent population distribution and economic development in Xinjiang is decreasing,that is,the regional differences between population and economy in various states and cities are gradually reduced.