基于实物期权的CCS投资激励研究

Study on Incentives for CCS Investment Based on the Real Options Approach

基于实物期权理论,在碳交易机制下,考虑碳交易价格的不确定性,构建模型分析不同政策激励情景下CCS(Carbon Capture and Storage)投资的最优执行条件,并从预期执行时间的角度得到电价补贴、投资补贴、税收减免等不同激励的最优值。实证分析发现上述激励均有助于促进CCS投资,但电价补贴相对于其他激励对CCS投资预期执行时间的影响更为显著,因此进一步分析了市场因素、技术因素对最优电价补贴的影响。相关结论可为CCS投资激励提供政策借鉴。

Under the carbon trading mechanism,considering uncertainties in carbon price,a real options model for CCS investment was proposed to study the optimal executed conditions for CCS investment under different incentive scenarios.Also,from the perspective of expected exercise time,the optimal values of different incentives including electricity tariff subsidy,investment subsidy and tax exemption were obtained.The empirical analysis shows that the above incentives are conducive for promoting CCS investment,but the impact of electricity tariff subsidy on the expected exercise time of CCS investment is more significant than other incentives.Therefore,the influence of market factors and technical factors on optimal electricity tariff subsidy is further analyzed.The conclusions of the study can provide references for policy makers regarding CCS investment incentives.