国际投资协定对价值链贸易的影响研究

The Influence of International Investment Agreements on Value Chains Trade

文章基于2000~2014年WIOD和UIBE数据,通过构建扩展引力模型分别检验了43个国家(地区)的双边投资协定(BIT)和RTA中的投资条款对缔约方之间价值链贸易的作用效果。文章发现二者对于价值链贸易的作用效果存在较大差异。其中,BIT对于价值链贸易的影响不大,但RTA中的投资条款对缔约方之间双边增加值贸易具有明显的促进作用。具体而言,RTA中的投资条款有助于缔约方以前向参与和后向参与的方式参与全球价值链贸易,且对前向参与的促进作用程度更强;RTA中的投资条款对南北型和南南型RTA缔约方之间的增加值贸易具有显著促进作用,但对北北型RTA缔约方之间的增加值贸易则具有显著的抑制作用。为取得价值链贸易利益,各国政策制定者在参与国际投资协定谈判时可选取不同的策略。

Based on WIOD and UIBE data from 2000 to 2014,this paper tested the effects of BIT and Investment clauses in RTA of 43 countries on value chain trade among parties by building extended gravity models. It is found that the effects of the two on value chain trade are quite different. Among them,BIT has little impact on value chain trade,but the investment clauses in RTA have a significant promotion effect on bilateral value-added trade between parties. Specifically,the investment provisions in the RTA facilitate parties’ participation in GVCS in both previous and backward participations,and promote forward participation to a greater extent;The investment provisions in RTA significantly promote the value-added trade between North-South and South-South RTA parties,but significantly inhibit the value-added trade between North and South RTA parties. In order to obtain the benefits of value chain trade,policy makers of various countries can choose different strategies when participating in the negotiation of international investment agreements.