中国当代货币政策的制定——后顾还是前瞻?

The Making of Contemporary Chinese Monetary Policy

通过追踪政策反应函数,了解中央银行是否正在使用简单的规则,可以对中央银行与金融机构过去的行为关系提出深刻的洞见。正确认识货币政策的调整方向有助于金融机构做出合理预期,从而帮助中央银行预测整体经济的可能趋势。对中国货币政策的反应函数以及泰勒规则在中国的适用性进行实证研究,采用HP滤波的退势方法计算产出缺口序列,通过后顾性与前瞻性的反应函数得出回归方程,比较不同方法预测值与实际值的拟合优度,并进行样本内与样本外的预测。实证结果表明,中国人民银行在制定货币政策时不是后顾,而是前瞻,且通货膨胀目标制在稳定经济产出方面起着重要作用。

Tracking policy response functions to understand whether central banks are using simple rules can provide insights into the past behavioral relationships between central banks and financial institutions.A correct understanding of the direction of monetary policy can help financial institutions make reasonable expectations,thus helping central banks predict possible trends of the overall economy.This paper empirically studies the response function of China′s monetary policy and the adaptability of Taylor′s rule in China.The HP filter method is used to calculate the output gap series.The regression equation is obtained through forward-looking and backward-looking response functions.Through comparing the goodness-of-fit between the predicted and actual values of different methods with within-sample predictions and out-of-sample predictions,the empirical results show that the People's Bank of China engages in forward looking monetary policy rather than backward-looking monetary policy,and the inflation target plays an important role in stabilizing economic output.