浙江省制造业转型升级的就业效应研究

A Research on the Employment Effect of the Transformation and Upgrading of the Manufacturing Industry in Zhejiang

制造业转型升级的不断深入,引发的就业结构变化势必会对就业规模和质量产生深刻影响。以浙江全省及11个地级市面板数据为研究样本,利用SBM-I-C方法估算浙江省制造业整体及各地级市制造业的绿色全要素生产率,利用FGLS实证分析制造业转型升级对就业规模和就业质量的影响,结果发现:浙江全省及各地区制造业绿色全要素生产率逐年提升,且杭州制造业绿色全要素生产率水平最高。就全样本而言,制造业转型升级对就业规模的影响呈反向抑制作用,对就业质量则呈正向促进作用;就分区域而言,制造业转型升级对就业规模和就业质量的影响呈显著差异性;就控制变量而言,经济发展水平、外商直接投资和城镇化水平对就业规模和就业质量都产生了重要的影响。针对实证分析结论,提出了相应的对策建议。

With the ever deepening of the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,the resulting changes in employment structure will inevitably have a profound impact on the scale and quality of employment.Based on the panel data of Zhejiang Province and 11 prefecture-level cities,SBM-I-C method is used to estimate the green total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry in the whole Zhejiang Province and in each cities.Then,FGLS is used to analyze the impact of manufacturing transformation and upgrading on employment scale and employment quality.The results show that the green total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry in Zhejiang Province and each regions has been increasing year by year,and Hangzhou s manufacturing industry has the highest green total factor productivity.In terms of the entire sample,manufacturing transformation and upgrading has a negative inhibitory effect on employment scale but a positive promotive effect on employment quality.In terms of the prefecture-level cities,the impact of manufacturing transformation and upgrading on employment scale and employment quality is significantly diverse in different regions.As for the controlling variables,the level of economic development,foreign direct investment,and the level of urbanization all have important influence on the scale and quality of employment.According to these empirical analysis conclusions,corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.