中国产业部门隐含能源的测度、分解与跨境转移——基于CRIO模型的研究

Measurement,Decomposition,and Cross-Border Transfer of Embodied Energy of Chinas Industrial Sectors:Based on the CRIO Model

传统基于直接能源消耗量的测度方法容易造成产业部门能源消耗量的高估或低估,据此制订的节能减排政策容易导致政策的反弹效应。为克服这一问题,本文通过构建跨区域投入产出(CRIO)模型,从隐含能源的视角对产业部门的能源消耗量进行测度,从总产出使用去向的角度对能源消耗量的使用去向进行分解,辨识能源消耗的关键环节,随后对隐含能源的跨境转移情况进行了讨论。研究发现:(1)中国产业部门的隐含能源强度普遍高于世界平均水平,部门之间的隐含能源强度存在较大的差异性。(2)能源消耗的关键环节是中间使用,其占总产出隐含能源的75.87%,是最终使用环节能源消耗量的3.14倍;但中间使用隐含能源的73.85%被产业链下游其他部门的生产所消耗。(3)进口的隐含能源主要用于了生产而不是消费,进口的隐含能源中转出口的量超过了国内最终消费的量,忽视进口转出口的隐含能源将高估中国实际的能源消耗量。

The traditional measurement method based on the direct energy consumption of the industrial sectors tends to overestimate or underestimate the energy use,and the energy conservation and emission reduction policies formulated based on it tend to lead to the rebound effect of the policies.This paper measures the energy use of China’s industrial sectors from the perspective of embodied energy by constructing a cross-regional input-output model(CRIO),decomposes the embodied energy from the perspective of total output,identifies the key links of energy use,and explores its cross-border transfer in imports and exports.It is found that:(1) The embodied energy intensity of China’s industrial sectors is generally higher than the world average level,and there are great differences between sectors.(2) The key link of energy use is intermediate use.75.87% of the embodied energy of total output is consumed by the intermediate use,73.85% of the embodied energy of intermediate use is consumed by the production of other sectors in the downstream of the industrial chain,and the embodied energy of intermediate use is 3.14 times that of the final use.(3) The embodied energy of imports is mainly used for production rather than consumption,among that the amount of re-export exceeds the domestic final consumption,and ignores it will overestimate the amount of energy use of China.