基于研发投入视角下人口老龄化的经济增长效应研究

The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth--From the Perspective of R & D Inputs

人口老龄化带来的劳动力减少使得未来经济增长必须通过研发投入及创新驱动提高劳动生产率,寻求经济增长新动力。本文构建将研发人员投入和研发资金投入内生化的新凯恩斯生命周期DSGE模型,探讨人口老龄化对两类研发投入及经济增长的动态影响。主要结论是:人口老龄化倒逼企业加大研发人员投入、增加研发资金投入等方式,提升劳动生产率,在一定程度上抵消老龄化对生产性劳动力的负效应,促进经济增长。同时,本文证明研发人员投入要比研发资金投入对经济增长的推动效应更加明显。此外,研发环境或条件对人口老龄化效应具有显著调节作用,研发外部依赖性的降低以及研发人员流动性的上升将增加人口老龄化的研发投入效应,但会弱化其经济增长效应。

With the aging of population,the future economic growth must be driven by R&D investment and in-novation to improve labor productivity and seek new impetus for economic growth..The paper establishes a New Keynesian Life-Cycle DSGE model endogenously incorporating R&D personnel and R&D capital,respectively,In our model,aging is characterized by the survival probability shock of retirees,By means of numerical simulation,we ana-lyze the dynamic effects of aging on R&D inputs,macroeconomic fluctuations and its transmission mechanism.The main conclusions are:(1)Aging has significant positive R&D input effects and labor efficiency effects.Specifically,the im-pacts on R&D personnel,R&D capital are all positive,but the short-term volatility of R&D personnel is relatively lar-ger than that of R&D capital;(2)Aging has a long-term positive effect on output volatility;(3)R&D environment or conditions are able to modulate the above effects of aging.Specifically,decreasing R&D external dependence and ad-justment costs and increasing staff mobility will enhance aging’s R&D input effects,but weaken its macroeconomic effects.