我国关税减让对国内制造业市场实际份额的影响研究——基于WIOD国际投入产出模型的测算

Research on the Impact of Chinas Tariff Reduction on the Actual Share of the DomesticManufacturing Market-Calculation Based on WIOD International Input - output Model

本文通过构建国家间投入产出模型,从制造业的四种技术类别、两个减税阶段定量测算了2000年至2014年间我国减让进口关税对国内产品市场实际份额的影响。发现市场实际份额呈现先降后升的"U型"反弹特征,但不同行业回升程度显著分化。基于此,本文进一步建立面板模型估算出进口关税弹性,实证检验各行业国内市场实际份额变化与进口关税的关系,研究发现:(1)进口关税弹性与行业技术水平高低呈现"中间大、两头小"的特点,我国关税下调契合这一规律并起到良好效果;(2)进口关税对我国低技术行业的市场份额保护基本"失效",对中高技术和高技术行业的作用为"弱效",对中低技术行业、部分中高技术行业的作用为"强效";(3)在下调进口关税时,高收入国家对我国相关市场份额的抢占程度要明显高于发展中国家。为淡化降低进口关税的负面影响,需要对各行业的降税速度和幅度进行分类调整。

By constructing an input-output model between countries,this paper quantitatively measures the impact of China’s reduction of import tariffs on the actual market share of domestic products from the four technology categories of the manufacturing industry and the two tax reduction stages.It was found that the actual market share showed a "U-shaped" rebound characteristic of first decline and then rise,but the recovery of different industries was significantly differentiated.Based on this,this article further establishes a panel model to estimate the import tariff elasticity,empirically tests the relationship between changes in domestic actual market shares in various industries and import tariffs,and finds that:(1) The elasticity of import tariffs and the technical level of the industry are characterized by "Big middle,two small ends",China’s tariff reduction fits this law and has a good effect;(2) Import tariffs have basically "ineffective" the market share protection of China’s low-tech industries, "Low effect" on medium and high technology and high technology industries,It has a "strong effect" on low and medium technology industries and some medium and high technology industries;(3) When reducing import tariffs,high-income countries’ preemption of China’s relevant market shares is significantly higher than that of developing countries.In order to reduce the negative impact of reducing import tariffs,it is necessary to adjust the speed and extent of tax reductions in various industries by classification.