新冠疫情对中国二氧化碳排放的影响

Impact of Covid-19 on China’s CO2 Emissions

受新冠疫情影响,中国2020年一季度大量经济活动放缓甚至停摆。发电企业日均耗煤量、煤运港口煤炭吞吐量、炼油厂开工率、钢厂开工率、焦化厂开工率、铁路和民航日发送旅客数等均创历年同期新低。整体而言,本次疫情导致中国一季度CO2排放同比显著降低约20%。短期来看,为应对疫情,扩大投资将造成中国CO2排放强度降速放缓;长期来看,“新基建”发力有助于促进中国能源结构转型与2030年气候目标的实现。基于此提出:(1)对冲疫情影响扩大投资与产业低碳化发展相互协调;(2)对冲疫情影响扩大投资与去产能和优化产能结构统筹推进;(3)低碳发展引领乡村振兴;(4)加速推进全国碳市场的建设运行;(5)加快低碳技术研发、示范与成果转化等建议。

Affected by covid-19,a large number of economic activities in China slowed down or even stopped in the first quarter of 2020.The indicators of average daily coal consumption of power generation enterprises,coal handling capacity of coal transportation ports,oil refinery operation rate,steel plant operation rate,coking plant operation rate,railway and civil aviation passenger number all reached new lows over the years.Overall,the outbreak has resulted in a significant reduction of about 20%in China’s CO2 emissions in the first quarter compared with the same period of 2019.In the short term,the expansion of investment in response to the epidemic will lead to a slowdown in the pace and intensity of China’s carbon dioxide emissions.In the long run,“new infrastructure”will contribute to the transformation of China’s energy structure and the realization of the 2030 climate goals.Based on this,the following are proposed:(1)expand investment to realize industry low carbonization;(2)continue to cut overcapacity and optimize energy-producing structure while expanding investment;(3)vitalize rural areas in a low-carbon way;(4)accelerate the construction of national carbon market;and(5)accelerate research and development,demonstration,and transformation of low carbon technology.