所为非所想?农户风险管理意愿与行为的悖离分析

The Paradox Between Farmers’ Willingness and Adoption of Risk Management

实现农户风险管理意愿与行为统一是降低农业风险对农户农业生产负面影响的重要途径。利用2018年东北三省和湖北省种植大户的调查数据,从自然风险与市场风险两方面,对农户风险管理的意愿、行为及其悖离进行分析,并探究形成悖离的原因。研究发现:对于自然风险,大部分农户使用了有效的风险管理工具,但风险管理意愿不高;农户的市场风险管理行为极为少见,与之相悖的是,农户具有较高的市场风险管理意愿。结果表明,风险管理实际行为控制、风险管理执行意愿和风险管理外部环境是影响农户自然风险管理意愿与行为悖离的主要因素;此外,农户对农业保险缺乏了解,以及目前农业保险存在的不足也是导致此悖离的重要原因;风险管理执行意愿和风险管理外部环境是影响农户市场风险管理意愿与行为悖离的主要因素。此外,农户获取信息渠道不足,对市场风险管理工具缺乏了解,甚至存在明显的误解与不信任也是导致农户市场风险管理意愿与行为悖离的重要原因。因此,为了有效实现农户风险管理意愿与行为的统一,应健全农业保险的推广机制,加强市场风险管理的宣传,扩大“保险+期货”的试点,发挥新型主体的带动作用。

Risk is an inherent part of agriculture and thus unifying households’risk management willingness with their behavior is the crucial way to reduce the negative influence of agriculture risk on agricultural production.Collecting data of large crop-land farmers in Northeast China and Hubei province in 2018,this study analyzes the willingness,behavior and the deviation of farmers’risk management from the perspective of natural risk and market risk and explores the causes of the deviation.The empirical results show that most farmers have adopted a management strategy for natural risk,but they have lower risk management willingness.In contrast,the farmers’market risk management behavior is extremely scarce,but they have higher risk management willingness.The results show that the actual behavior control of risk management,the willingness to implement risk management and the external environment of risk management are the main factors causing the paradox between the willingness and behavior of natural risk management of farmers.In addition,the lack of understanding of agricultural insurance and the existing deficiencies of agricultural insurance are also important reasons for the paradox.The farmers’readiness for implementation of risk management and the external environment are the main factors causing the paradox between farmers’market risk management willingness and their behavior.Besides,farmers’lack of access to information,lack of understanding of market risk management tools,and even obvious misunderstanding and distrust are also important reasons.Therefore,in order to unify farmers’risk management willingness with their behavior,we need to strengthen government publicity and guidance for market risk management,improve the mechanism for popularizing agricultural insurance,expand trials of insurance plus futures.