内蒙古大豆秋季霜冻发生的演变特征及气候危险性风险指数的构建

The evolution characteristics and the construction of climate hazard risk index of soybean autumn frost in Inner Mongolia

以1981—2010年内蒙古自治区119个气象站日最低气温及初霜冻发生日期为基础,以不同气候生态区的80%保证率成熟日期作为界限日期,评定大豆[Glycine max(Linn.)Merr.]秋季霜冻灾害是否发生,并构建霜冻灾害气候危险性风险指数指标体系,分析内蒙古大豆秋季霜冻发生的演变特征及空间分布特征。结果表明,在30年时间尺度内,内蒙古大豆不同等级秋季霜冻发生范围虽有略变小的趋势,但各等级的初霜冻日均呈提前趋势;霜冻发生的区域特征明显,轻霜冻发生范围相对较广且发生范围的年际变化较大。不同等级秋季霜冻发生频率大致呈东北高、西部和东南部低的空间分布规律,变异系数与强度频率空间分布规律相对一致,变异性较大的地区主要分布在大兴安岭山脉和阴山山脉地区。通过气候危险性风险指数指标模型的构建和等级划分,内蒙古大豆秋季霜冻危险性存在较大的空间差异性,霜冻危险性高的区域集中在东北部地区,其中大兴安岭南麓农区是内蒙古大豆主产区之一,掌握霜冻变化规律,合理安排作物品种熟型,做好该地区的防灾减灾和气象为农服务工作是保证大豆丰产丰收的有利条件。

Based on the lowest daily temperature and the earliest frost occurrence date of 119 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2010,the maturity date of the 80%guarantee rate of different climate ecoregions was used as the boundary date to assess whether the soybean[Glycine max(Linn.)Merr.]frost disaster occurred.The climate hazard risk index system of frost disasters was constructed to analyze the evolution characteristics of Inner Mongolia soybean autumn frost and spatial distribu⁃tion characteristics.The results showed that in the 30a time scale,different grade autumn frost of soybean occured in Inner Mongolia were slightly smaller trend,but the early frost days of different grades showed an early trend.The regional characteristics of frost occur⁃rence were obvious,and the range of light frost occured in relatively large areas,and the interannual variation of light frost was obvi⁃ous,and the date of occurrence was also significantly in advanced.The distribution law was that the frequency of autumn frost in differ⁃ent grades was generally high in the northeast,was low in west and southeast.The coefficient of variation and the spatial distribution of intensity and frequency were relatively consistent,and the regions with large variability were mainly distributed in the Daxinganling mountains and Yinshan mountains.Through the construction of climate hazard risk index model and classification of risk climate in⁃dex,there was a large spatial difference for the risk of autumn frost in Inner Mongolia,the area with high risk of frost was concentrated in the northeast region.And among them,the south of Daxinganling was agricultural area that was one of the major soybean producing areas of Inner Mongolia.There is an advantageous condition for ensuring a high harvest of soybeans that mastering the change law of frost,rationally arranging crop varieties and familiarity,doing a good job in disaster prevention and mitigation and meteorological ser⁃vices for agriculture in the region.