河南省水资源利用与经济发展的脱钩分析

Decoupling Analysis of Water Resources Utilization and Economic Development in Henan Province

基于脱钩理论对2009—2018年河南省的水资源利用与经济发展构建Tapio脱钩指数模型,并利用LMDI模型对影响河南省水资源利用的主要影响因素进行因素分解分析,研究结果表明:从整体上看,河南省水资源利用与经济发展总体上处于脱钩的状态,说明二者之间处于一种较协调的状态,但又并未实现绝对脱钩;从产业结构来看,总脱钩弹性优于工业脱钩弹性,优于农业脱钩弹性;经济水平是河南省水资源利用量最主要正向影响因素,产业结构和水资源利用强度均起负向影响。因此,需要合理调整产业结构、提高水资源利用效率以及发展高效生态农业。

Based on the decoupling theory,this paper builds the Tapio decoupling index model of water resources utilization and economic development of Henan province in 2009—2018,and conducts decomposition analysis for main factors affecting the water resources utilization in Henan province by LMDI model,the results show that:In overall,the water resources utilization and economic development of Henan province are in a state of decoupling,indicating that there is a coordination between them,but the absolute decoupling is not achieved;From the perspective of industrial structure,the total decoupling elasticity is better than the industrial decoupling elasticity and the agricultural decoupling elasticity;Economic level is the most important positive influence factor of water resources utilization in Henan province,while both the industrial structure and the intensity of water utilization exert a negative impact.Therefore,it is necessary to adjust the industrial structure reasonably,improve the utilization efficiency of water resources and develop efficient ecological agriculture.