中国人口老龄化的制度背景与时空演变

The Institutional Background and Spatial-temporal Evolution of Population Aging in China

中国未来的经济增长模式亟需向创新驱动转型,而人口老龄化的加剧将对创新型发展道路产生重要影响。为了应对人口老龄化的挑战,有必要审视和全面分析中国人口老龄化的制度背景和时空演变特征,从而实施“积极老龄化”的应对策略。从计划生育政策的梳理和人口数据分析发现,计划生育政策是中国人口老龄化加深的制度背景;从人口老龄化的时变特征来看,人口增长率和出生率逐渐降落,人口老龄化程度持续加深,且呈加速态势;从空间分布特征来看,人口老龄化的地域分布呈现中东高-西低格局,且遵循“胡焕庸线”分布规律,城乡分布呈现倒置趋势。为此,中国有必要出台教育补贴、生育补贴和延迟退休等一系列配套措施,进一步提升居民生育意愿,缓解人口老龄化不断加深的趋势。

China will inevitably turn to an innovation-driven economic growth mode,and the aggravation of China's aging population will have an important impact on the innovative development.In order to cope with the challenge of population aging,it is necessary to examine and analyze the institutional background and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of population aging in China.Based on the analysis of family planning policy and population data,it is found that family planning policy is the institutional background of the increasing population aging in China.In terms of the time-varying characteristics of population aging,the population growth rate and birth rate gradually decline,and the degree of population aging continues with an accelerated trend.According to the spatial distribution characteristics,the regional distribution of population aging is more concentrated in the Central and East China than in the West,and following the distribution law of“Hu Huanyong Line”,the urban and rural distribution presents an inverted trend.Therefore,it is necessary for China to introduce a series of supporting measures,such as education subsidies,birth subsidies and postponed retirement to encourage people to have children and slow down population aging.