新型城镇化与乡村振兴耦合协调发展研究——以甘肃为例

Research on the Coupling and Coordinated Development of the New Urbanization and Rural Revitalization: Taking Gansu Province as an Example

新型城镇化与乡村振兴相辅相成,具有互动联动、相互促进的紧密联系,研究两者间的耦合协调关系,对于促进城乡融合发展和农业农村现代化具有重要意义。文章基于2010-2017年甘肃省时间序列数据,采用耦合协调度模型、Tobit模型对两者间的耦合协调水平和影响因素进行研究。结果表明:考察期内新型城镇化与乡村振兴水平均呈上升趋势,且新型城镇化水平一直高于乡村振兴水平;耦合度值处于0.48~0.50之间波动,属于低度耦合阶段;耦合协调水平一直呈显著上升趋势,大致经历了“中度失调—轻度失调—勉强协调”发展阶段,但目前发展尚未成熟,存在较大提升空间;产业结构、科技创新能力、政府能力、对外开放程度以及公共服务均等化对耦合协调度具有显著正向影响,而经济发展对耦合协调度起到了显著的阻碍作用。基于分析评价结果,提出了大力推动农业农村优先发展,坚持城乡融合发展战略等一系列政策启示。

The new urbanization and Rural Revitalization complement each other, and have a close relationship of interaction and mutual promotion. It is of great significance to study the coupling and coordination relationship between the two for promoting the integration of urban and rural development and agricultural and rural modernization. Based on the time series data of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2017, the coupling coordination degree model and Tobit model are used to study the coupling coordination level and influencing factors between them. The results show that the level of new urbanization and rural revitalization is on the rise, and the level of new urbanization is always higher than the level of rural revitalization;the coupling degree value is between 0.48 and0.50. The level of coupling coordination has been on a significant upward trend, and has roughly experienced the development stages of"moderate imbalance—slight imbalance—barely coordination", but the development is not yet mature and there is a large room for improvement;industrial structure, scientific and technological innovation capacity, government capacity, opening up degree and equalization of public services have significant effects on coupling coordination degree Economic development has a significant negative effect on the coupling coordination degree. Based on the analysis and evaluation results, a series of policy implications are put forward, such as vigorously promoting the priority development of agriculture and rural areas, and adhering to the urban-rural integration development strategy.