新疆城镇化、农业现代化与农民收入增长的动态关系分析

Analysis of Dynamic Relationship Between Urbanization, Agricultural Modernization and Farmers′ Income Growth in Xinjiang

文章基于新疆1994-2017年时间序列数据,运用VAR模型及协整检验,考察城镇化、农业现代化与农民收入增长的动态关系,并利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解技术对实证结果进行检验分析。结果表明,新疆城镇化、农业现代化与农民收入增长之间存在长期均衡关系,农业现代化是农民收入增长的Granger原因,对农民收入增长的影响显著,城镇化不是农民收入增长的Granger原因,对农民增收的作用微弱,农民收入增长、农业现代化以及二者的共同作用都是显著影响城镇化发展的Granger原因;而农业现代化不受模型中单一变量或综合因素的影响。

Based on the time series data of Xinjiang from 1994 to 2017, this paper uses VAR model and cointegration test to investigate the dynamic relationship between urbanization, agricultural modernization and farmers′ income growth, and uses Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition technology to test and analyze the empirical results. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization, agricultural modernization and farmers′ income growth in Xinjiang. Agricultural modernization is the Granger cause of farmers′ income growth, which has a significant impact on the growth of farmers′ income. Urbanization is not the Granger cause of farmers′ income growth, but has a weak effect on the increase of farmers′ income;agricultural modernization is not affected by single variable or comprehensive factors in the model.