中国农产品出口哈萨克斯坦影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China′ s Agricultural Products Export to Kazakhstan

哈萨克斯坦是中国的第二大邻国,与中国农产品经贸往来频繁。文章基于2010-2017年中哈间HS编码下农产品贸易数据,结合中国农产品出口哈萨克斯坦贸易现状和出口竞争力,从经济规模、人口总量、政策便利化、贸易便利化四个方面选取指标对中国农产品出口哈萨克斯坦的影响因素进行实证分析,结果显示:中国政策稳定性、政府效率和经济自由度对中国农产品出口哈萨克斯坦具有重要正向影响;中国和哈萨克斯坦的经济规模对中国农产品出口哈萨克斯坦具有较显著正向影响;中国基础设施和物流绩效水平对中国农产品出口哈萨克斯坦具有负向影响,但影响较小。最后提出调整农产品出口结构、加强基础设施建设、促进贸易制度相通和扩大经济开放等科学合理的建议。

Kazakhstan is China′s second largest neighbor and has frequent economic and trade exchanges with China′s agricultural products. Based on the trade data of agricultural products under HS code between China and Kazakhstan from 2010 to 2017, combined with the trade status and export competitiveness of China′s agricultural products export to Kazakhstan, this paper selects indicators from four aspects of economic scale, total population, policy facilitation and trade facilitation to analyze the influencing factors of China′s agricultural products export to Kazakhstan The results show that government efficiency and economic freedom have an important positive impact on China′s agricultural exports to Kazakhstan;the economic scale of China and Kazakhstan has a significant positive impact on China′s agricultural exports to Kazakhstan;China’s infrastructure and logistics performance have a negative impact on China′s agricultural exports to Kazakhstan, but the impact is small. Finally, it puts forward some scientific and reasonable suggestions, such as adjusting the export structure of agricultural products, strengthening the construction of infrastructure,promoting the interlinked trade system and expanding economic opening.