基于贝叶斯网络的酒店火灾概率评估

Hotel fire probability evaluation based on Bayesian Network

为加强酒店场所对火灾风险的预警和管理工作,对《中国消防年鉴》及广东省东莞市火灾数据进行分析总结并查阅相关文献,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的酒店火灾风险模型,采用权重占比法计算出了东莞市酒店火灾发生概率,使用软件Genie2.1对东莞市酒店火灾风险因素建模,并对各火灾风险进行了敏感性分析,识别对火灾风险影响显著的因素,针对显著因素提出酒店的火灾风险改进意见。

In order to strengthen the early warning and management of fire risks at hotel sites,the China Fire Yearbook and the fire data of Dongguan City in Guangdong Province were analyzed and summarized,and relevant literatures were consulted.A hotel fire risk model based on Bayesian networks was established and weighted the ratio method was used to calculate the probability of a hotel fire in Dongguan.The software Genie 2.1 was used to model the fire risk factors.Sensitivity analysis of each fire risk was performed to identify the factors that have a significant impact on the fire risk.Suggestions for improving the hotel's fire risk were put forward for the significant factors.