日本贸易逆差是短期现象还是长期趋势?

Japan’s Trade Deficit:A Short-term Phenomenon or A Long-term Trend?

贸易企业应对汇率、石油价格等因素变动的能力,实际上是由本国产业结构、人口结构和财政政策等长期因素决定的;这些长期因素使一国贸易收支呈现阶段性演变特征,因此是判断贸易收支走势的关键。进一步而言,进出口收入弹性的对比可以作为贸易收支阶段的判定指标,当出口收入弹性与进口收入弹性之比大于1,一国贸易收支通常处于顺差状态,反之则处于顺差规模缩小或逆差状态。基于上述分析,本文在实证验证贸易收支模型的基础上,对日本贸易收支趋势进行了预测,发现2020—2022年其贸易收支走向逆差的趋势十分明显;从收入弹性比考察,日本在2005年后出口收入弹性远小于进口收入弹性,表明日本贸易收支转向逆差是长期趋势,而不是短期现象。这是因为人口老龄化等引致贸易收支逆差的因素已经持续较长时间,而金融危机后的逆全球化浪潮,特别是中美贸易摩擦,也大大加快了日本走向贸易收支逆差的速度。

The ability of trading enterprises to cope with changes in exchange rates,oil prices and other factors is actually determined by some long-term factors such as the industrial structure,population structure and fiscal policy of their country,which makes the country’s trade income and expenditure show the characteristic of stage evolution and therefore is the key to judging the trend of trade income and expenditure.Further,the comparison between import and export income elasticities can be used as an index to evaluate changes of trade income and expenditure.When the ratio of export income elasticity to import income elasticity is greater than 1,a country’s trade balance is usually surplus,otherwise the surplus is decreasing or turns to deficit.Based on the empirical analysis of the trade balance model,it can be forecasted that the trend of Japan’s growing trade deficit is very obvious in 2020-2022.Since 2005,Japan’s export income elasticity has been much less than the import income elasticity,which indicates that the growing prospect of Japan’s trade deficit is a long-term trend,due to some long-term factors such as the aging population.The tide of anti-globalization after the financial crisis in 2008,especially the trade friction between China and the United States,has greatly accelerated the trend with Japan’s trade deficit occurring at this stage.