中国酒店产业的增长核算

A Study on the Growth Accounting of Chinas Hotel Industry

文章基于新古典经济增长理论,采用增长核算方法,对中国酒店业增长方式进行了实证分析。鉴于生产函数中要素投入自变量之间存在的多重共线性,该文采用主成分分析法、岭回归分析法和偏最小二乘法对全国酒店业的生产函数进行估计,经过比较,选择偏最小二乘法的估计结果为基准结果。研究发现,1992—2012年间,中国酒店业的劳动和资本投入每增加1%,使产出分别增长0.47%和0.52%,行业处在由规模报酬不变到规模报酬递减的过渡期;酒店业增长主要由劳动和资本要素共同驱动,两者分别贡献了产出增长的43.36%和39.89%,处于劳动驱动增长阶段迈向投资驱动增长阶段的交接处;酒店业全要素生产率年均提高1.42%,投入产出效率逐步改进,但TFP对产业增长的贡献率仅有16.74%,尚处于粗放增长时期。

Benefited from the reform and opening-up policy and the prosperity of tourism,China’s hotel industry has enjoyed rapid growth successively over many years.However,at the same time,the operating performance of the industry has not been improved.The profit margin of the whole industry is low for a long time and even shows a loss state in most years.In order to realize the sustainable growth of China’s hotel industry and the steady enhancement of its profit,it is necessary to explore the growth pattern of the hotel industry.The growth accounting method based on the theory of economic growth provides a useful tool to identify the growth pattern.At present,the growth accounting of China’s tourism industry as a whole has been seen in many literature,but the research on China’s hotel industry is almost blank.The existing literature do not consider the multi-collinearity between explanatory variables(different factors of production),and most of them adopt OLS estimation,which results in the coefficient of some explanatory variables(factor output elasticity)is not significant,and the elasticity of some factors is negative while the elasticity of others is greater than 1,which is contrary to economic theory.Through the growth accounting method,this paper intends to analyze the growth pattern of China’s hotel industry by using the Cobb-Douglas production function.In this model,revenue of star hotel is used as output index,accompanied by capital stock and employees as input index.Among them,capital stock is computed with the Perpetual Inventory Method.In view of the multi-collinearity among the independent variables of factor input in the production function,this paper uses principal component analysis,ridge regression analysis and partial least squares method to estimate the production function of hotel industry in China.After comparison,the estimation result of partial least squares method is selected as the basic result.The results show that,from 1992 to 2012,every 1%increase in labor and capital input in China’s hotel industry will increase respectively output by 0.4704%and 0.5239%.The industry is in the transition period from constant returns to diminishing returns to scale.Secondly,the growth of hotel industry is mainly driven by labor and capital factors,which contribute 43.36%and 39.89%of output growth respectively,implying China’s hotel industry is in the stage of labor driven growth.Thirdly,the total factor productivity of the hotel industry has increased by 1.42%annually,and the input-output efficiency has gradually improved,however,the contribution rate of TFP to the industrial growth is only 16.74%,implying China’s hotel industry is still in the extensive growth period.The above findings have rich policy implications,for example,they can prompt the government and hotel managers to strive to improve the quality of production factors and gradually upgrade the growth pattern of the industry.This paper may have following improvements to the existing research:on the one hand,it tests and finds that there is serious multi-collinearity among the input variables of each factor,and adopts the estimation method which can effectively overcome the problem to correct the abnormal estimation results;on the other hand,we use principal component analysis,ridge regression analysis and partial least squares method to estimate the parameters,and get generally consistent results,which enhance the robustness and reliability of the results.