平均住院总费用的灰色关联分析及趋势预测——以关节置换术患者为例

Gray correlation analysis and trend prediction on average general hospitalization expenses:example of joint replacement patients

目的为进一步合理控制关节置换术患者住院费用,降低患者经济负担提供参考依据和建议。方法运用灰色关联分析和灰色预测法,对手术患者住院费用影响因素进行分析,并预测其未来发展趋势。结果2013—2018年平均住院总费用的主要影响因素为耗材费和药费,关联度最小的为护理费和床位费;2019—2023年平均住院总费用以及药占比年预测值都呈不断下降趋势。结论关节置换术患者住院费用得到控制,医务人员劳务技术价值得到提升。医院应继续加大对手术耗材费以及手术指征的监管力度,发展加速康复外科,加快配套措施改革,维持良好发展趋势。

Objective To provide scientific basis and suggestion for further reasonable control of hospitalization expenses about joint replacement patients and reduce their economic burden.Methods Gray correlation analysis and grey prediction model(1,1)were used to analyze the influencing factors of the hospitalization expenses from 2013 to 2018,and then to forecast drug proportion and overall average hospitalization costs per patient from 2019 to 2023.Results Consumables fee and drug cost were main factors for average total hospitalization expenses;from 2019 to 2023,the predictive value of drug proportion and average total hospitalization costs were presented the downward trend.Conclusion Hospitalization expenses about surgical patients have been controlled,and technical value of medical staff has been upgraded.The hospital should continue to control the cost of consumables and drugs,accelerate to implement enhanced recovery after surgery,speed up the reform of supporting measures,and maintain a good trend of development.