新冠肺炎疫情与印度对外战略新态势

Covid-19 and New Trends of India's Foreign Affairs Strategy

新冠肺炎疫情暴露了全球治理的不足,加剧了中美战略博弈,刺激了全球产业链的重塑。在印度看来,虽然疫情给印度国内发展带来巨大挑战,但上述国际战略环境的变化为其提供了“借疫谋势”的空间。因而,印度政府主动作为、化危为机,努力将疫情变量与其既有的内外战略相结合,在延续既有政策的基础上,因势利导开展“抗疫”外交,维系乃至扩展其国家利益。印度的对外战略态势主要体现在三个层面:以“改革的多边主义”积极参与全球治理,提高对全球治理的参与度;加强印太地区战略投入,加速推进印太战略;乘势开展“产业链外交”,提高本国在全球产业链、价值链中的地位。鉴于莫迪政府的执政稳定性,上述对外战略新态势将在较长时间内延续下去。当然,新冠肺炎疫情对印度国内政治、经济、社会造成全方位冲击,宗教矛盾激化、经济雪上加霜、政策资源有限、外部环境深刻调整等势必影响其对外战略实施和国家崛起前景。印度对外战略的调整使其对华政策竞争性乃至冒险性增强。中印需要保持战略谨慎,确保双边关系战略稳定。

Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the deficit of global governance,intensified the strategic competition between China and the US,and stimulated the reshaping of global industrial chain.In India's view,such changes in international strategic environment have provided it with more opportunities than challenges.Although Covid-19 pandemic has posed a serious challenge to India's domestic development,it has also created significant diplomatic space for India.The Indian government has taken the initiative to turn the crisis into an opportunity,and made efforts to combine the pandemic variables with its existing internal and external strategies.While continuing the current practices,India's foreign policy has boasted of some new trends.First,India has taken an active part in global governance with reformed multilateralism and increase participation in global governance.Second,it has increased strategic input into the Indo-Pacific region and accelerated the implementation of its Indo-Pacific strategy.Third,it has taken advantage of the trend to pursue industrial chain diplomacy and seek to improve its status in the global industry chain.Given its domestic stability under the Modi administration and the long-term competition between China and the US,India will continue to push forward the above-mentioned foreign policy.Of course,Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on India's politics,economy and society in all aspects.It has also brought about intensified religious conflicts,economic aggravation,reduced policy resources,and transformed external environment,all of which will hinder the rise of India.As for the China-India relationship,the adjustment of India's foreign affairs strategy has made its China policy more competitive and risky than before by nature.China and India should maintain strategic prudence to ensure strategic stability of their bilateral relations.