我国公共财政支出对宏观经济的动态效用分析——基于政府偿债方式的视角

The Dynamic Utility Analysis of China’s Fiscal Expenditure on Macro Economy:From the Perspective of Government Debt Repayment

多数国家采用公共财政支出对宏观经济进行调控,但其实际效果如何目前未有定论。文章基于我国1980-2017年的宏观数据,主要考察VAR模型中基于政府公共财政支出导致的财政赤字在使用不同偿债方式还款时,对宏观经济的动态影响,实证分析财政支出增加对消费、GDP、利率、汇率、债务的动态作用机制。结果发现,考虑借债还款时,实证结果更易于用新古典经济理论进行解释,短期促进了GDP和消费,但长期作用是消极的,导致利率和汇率的缓慢上升,对产出、消费和私人投资都具有一定的挤出作用。另外,财政支出不同的还款方式产生的经济效应也不同,财政支出采用借债还款形式的宏观经济效应要比采用增加税收形式或者是不考虑还款形式的效应更大。

The regulation of public finance expenditure on macroeconomy is a common practice in most countries,but the actual effect has not been determined. Based on the macro data of China from 1980 to 2017,this paper mainly investigates the dynamic impact of the fiscal deficit caused by the government’s public fiscal expenditure on the macro economy when different debt repayment methods are used in the VAR model,and empirically analyzes the dynamic action mechanism of the increase of fiscal expenditure on consumption,GDP,interest rate,exchange rate and debt. The results show that when debt repayment is considered,the empirical results are easier to be explained by the neoclassical economic theory,which promotes GDP and consumption in the short term,but has a negative long-term effect,resulting in the slow rise of interest rate and exchange rate,and has a certain crowding out effect on output,consumption and private investment. In addition,different repayment methods of fiscal expenditure have different economic effects. The macroeconomic effect of debt repayment of fiscal expenditure is greater than that of tax increase or regardless of repayment form.