我国省际进口需求的收入和价格弹性估算与预测

Estimation and Prediction of Income and Price Elasticities of China’s Regional Import Demand

本文基于1990-2017年除西藏、港澳台以外的30个省份的面板数据与时间序列数据,对我国进口需求的收入与价格弹性分别进行了估算。结果表明,过去二十八年,我国进口需求的收入弹性为1.057,价格弹性为0.163。从地区差异来看,收入弹性表现为东部地区明显高于中西部地区;并且我国进口需求的价格弹性随着时间变得越来越大。在此基础上,文章对我国未来五年的进口增长潜力进行了预测。文章的研究表明,"一带一路"倡议的推进,中国国际进口博览会的召开,能为未来我国的高质量发展注入新的活力。

Based on the panel data and time series data from 1990 to 2017 of 30 provincial administrative regions except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan,this paper estimates the income and price elasticity of China’s import demand.The results show that in the past 28 years,the income elasticity and price elasticity of China’s import demand are 1.057 and 0.163 respectively.From the perspective of regional differences,the income elasticity of eastern region is significantly higher than that of central and western regions.And the price elasticity of China’s import demand becomes larger and larger with time.On this basis,this paper estimates the import growth potential of China in the next five years.The research of this article shows that the promotion of the Belt and Road initiative and the holding of the China International Import Expo inject new vitality into our high-quality development in the future.