美国政治百年大变局与2020年大选

America’s Great Transformation and the 2020 Presidential Election

当今美国政治面临百年未有之大变局。它最明显地体现在三个方面:一是百年未有的新冠肺炎疫情,使美国遭受1929年大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退;二是百年未有的社会分裂和政治极化,具体表现为两党选民在一系列重大议题上表现出巨大的党派鸿沟;三是百年未有的美国国家认同的危机,而中国的崛起被认为加剧了这场危机。这三个因素势必给2020年总统选举带来影响:新冠疫情可能对大选的投票率和两党支持率产生一定影响;在社会严重分裂和政治高度极化背景下,两党基本盘极有可能展示出超乎寻常的党派忠诚,从而使少数关键州少数选民决定本次总统选举结果;中国崛起被认为对美国国家认同构成严峻威胁,使得中国成为这次选举的关键议题之一,导致中美关系持续恶化。

American politics is facing unprecedented transformation in nearly one hundred years.This great transformation is manifested in three dimensions.The first is COVID-19 pandemic,which has caused the worst economic recession since 1929.The second is deep social confrontation and extreme political polarization,which has resulted in partisan divide on a variety of issues.The third is America’s national identity crisis,which is widely believed to have been intensified by China’s rise.These three factors will have varying effects on the upcoming presidential election.At the same time,China-US relations will probably continue its current downward trajectory.