2020年美国大选的特殊性及其影响

What is Special about the 2020 US Presidential Election?

2020年美国总统大选是一场共和党在任者与民主党挑战者之间的"非开放式"竞争。从选情态势看,特朗普谋求连任以及新冠肺炎疫情的双重特殊性共同增加了选举结果的不确定性。从总统政治、政党政治以及政治周期等维度考量,本次大选具有关键节点意义。在当前政治生态等因素的制约下,大选可能引发的政党轮替未必快速引发美国内外政策大幅度调整。在对华政策上,大选难以改变目前美国"竞争性对华战略"的总体趋势。

The 2020 US presidential election is seen as a competition between the incumbent GOP President Donald Trump and the Democratic challenger.Based on the development of the election,Trump’s fight for a second term and COVID-19 pandemic’s impact have increased the uncertainty of the election.From the perspective of political development,the election will have critical impacts in US presidential politics,party politics,and political cycles.The rotation of political parties that may be triggered by the election may not quickly achieve a major adjustment of US domestic and foreign policies.No matter who wins the election,it is difficult for the US to change the overall trend of US competitive strategy towards China.