城市差异化公共服务对人口空间集聚的影响——基于我国地级市动态空间杜宾模型的分析

The impact of urban differentiated public services on population spatial agglomeration in China:Based on the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model of China’s prefecture level cities

现有户籍管理制度下,地方政府公共服务存在以户籍为标尺的差异化特性,造成了城市人口空间集聚的非均衡性。运用中国2006-2016年地级市面板数据和动态空间杜宾模型,实证分析城市差异化公共服务对人口空间集聚的影响。研究结果表明:中国城市人口集聚过程中存在明显的空间集聚现象,且空间依赖性呈现不断增强的态势;城市公共服务差异是实现人口向城市集聚的重要路径,其对人口集聚规模和区域集中度均具有显著的促进作用,但不存在空间溢出效应;城市特殊性公共服务差异对城市人口空间集聚具有显著的促进作用,但空间溢出效应不显著;城市一般性公共服务差异对城市人口集聚规模和区域集中度的空间溢出效应为负,且对城市人口集聚密度具有负向效应。

Under the existing household registration system,the local government’s public services supply has the differentiated characteristics by taking household registration as the yardstick,which caused the non-equilibrium of urban population spatial agglomeration.Therefore,this paper analyzes the impact of urban differentiated public services on urban population agglomeration using China’s prefecture level panel data in2006-2016 and dynamic spatial Durbin model.The results show that there is a clear spatial agglomeration in the process of urban population agglomeration in China,and the spatial dependence is constantly increasing.The difference of urban public services is an important path to achieve population agglomeration,and has a significant role in promoting population agglomeration scale and regional concentration degree,but there is no spatial spillover effect.The difference of urban special public services has a significant role in promoting urban population agglomeration,but the spatial spillover effect is not significant.The difference in urban general public services is negative for the spatial spillover effect of urban population agglomeration scale and regional concentration degree,and has a negative effect on urban population agglomeration density.