城市人口规模及空间分布模拟与预测

Simulation and prediction of urban population scale and spatial distribution

认为目前城市人口预测及模拟研究存在两个难点:一是如何改善小区人口规模的预测精度,二是如何提高城市人口空间模型的空间分辨率。为解决上述问题,提出基于渐消因子和滑动窗口的小区人口预测方法,并构建基于土地分类信息、公共设施分布信息和多智能体技术的城市人口空间模拟方法。为验证所提出的方法,采用北京市通州区15个街区2010-2017年的人口数据、遥感影像和公共设施数据进行了测试。结果显示:所提方法可构建30米×30米分辨率的城市人口空间分布模型,用以预测城市未来五年的人口状况,该模型可获取误差小于5%的街道级人口规模预测结果。

Two problems need to be solved for providing the high precision population information.One is how to improve the population forecasting precision of small area;the other is how to improve the spatial resolution of urban population distribution model.To solve the two problems,some new methods are proposed in this contribution.To improve the precision of small area population forecasting,a new method is developed based on the fade factor and the slide window.To improve the spatial resolution of urban population distribution model,a new method is proposed based on the land classification,public facility information and the artificial intelligence technology.For validation of the proposed methods,the real population data of 15 streets in Tongzhou district of Beijing from 2010 to 2017,the remote sensing images and the public facility data are collected and used.A number of experiments are performed.The results show that the spatial resolution of proposed model reaches 30 m×30 m and the forecasting precision is better than 5%using the proposed method to forecast the population of 15 streets in Tongzhou district in the next five years.