信任网络、资金流动与区域发展差距

Network of trust,capital flow and regional development disparity

信任被认为是一种非正式制度和重要的社会资本,在正式制度尚未成熟尤其是法律基础薄弱的地区具有重要作用,能够弥补正式制度的缺陷,降低交易成本.利用中国人民银行大额支付系统和中国企业家调查系统的数据,本文首先考察了省际双边信任对地区间资金流动的因果影响.结果表明,来源地对目标地的信任水平会显著促进资金从来源地流入目标地.通过进一步构造基于地理关联、文化关联和信任关联的信任网络,我们发现信任网络的溢出效应对资金流动的促进作用大于来源地对目标地信任的直接影响.此外,两个地区间的双边信任差距越大,会引致更大的资金流动差异,进而扩大区域发展差距.本文从社会资本角度为中国区域发展不平衡现象给予了新的解释,并提出相应的政策建议.

Trust is recognized as an informal institution and important social capital that has an important role,in areas with under-developed formal institutions and weak legal framework,to compensate the weakness in formal institutions and to lower transaction costs.Using data from High-Value Payment System of People's Bank of China and the China Entrepreneur Survey System,this paper investigates the influence of bilateral trust on capital flow across provinces.The results show that,trust by origin provinces significantly promotes capital to flow into destination provinces.By further constructing the network of trust based on geographical,cultural and trust associations,we discover that the spillover effect via the network of trust is greater on capital-flow promotion than the direct effect of bilateral trust.Moreover,a bigger between-region gap in bilateral trust induces greater asymmetry in inter-region capital flow,which further expands regional development disparity.This paper provides an explanation to regional development disparity in China from a new perspective,and accordingly proposes relevant policy recommendations.