基于CGE模型的碳税政策模拟——以广东省为例

Carbon tax policy simulation based on CGE model:a case study of Guangdong province

科学设置碳税政策是控制二氧化碳排放量和推动能源结构优化的重要基础,文中以广东省为例,利用2012年的广东省投入产出表、广东统计年鉴、广东财政年鉴、中国统计年鉴等数据构建社会核算矩阵,通过构建静态的可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),进行区域的碳税政策模拟,分析不同程度的碳税税率对化石能源消费量及各宏观经济变量的影响。结果表明:征收碳税对减排效果有明显的正向作用,当碳税水平为60元/t时,广东省减排效果为3.90%;在碳税定价上,60元/t较为合适;减排贡献率最高的化石能源为煤炭,其次为石油,最低为天然气;碳税冲击下能源消费量下降,最明显的为煤炭,其次是火电;碳税冲击也能显著减少各部门对煤炭的消费量;碳税政策对广东省GDP和社会福利有负向作用,但对总体碳排放强度有正向作用。未来广东省应严格控制煤炭消费量,同时对火电部门进行低碳改造。

Setting up carbon tax policy scientifically is an important basis for controlling carbon dioxide emissions and promoting the optimization of energy structure.This paper takes Guangdong province as an example,using the input-output table of Guangdong province in 2012,the Guangdong Statistical Yearbook,the Guangdong Financial Yearbook,the China Statistical Yearbook and other data to construct the social accounting matrix,through building a static computable general equilibrium model(CGE),to simulate the regional carbon tax policy,and to analyze the impact of different carbon tax rates on fossil energy consumption and macroeconomic variables.The results show that carbon tax has a significant positive effect on emission reduction.When the carbon tax level is 60 CNY/t,the emission reduction effect of Guangdong province is 3.90%.In terms of carbon tax pricing,60 CNY/t is more appropriate.The fossil energy with the highest contribution rate is coal,followed by oil and finally natural gas.Under the impact of carbon tax,energy consumption declines,most notably coal,followed by thermal power.Carbon tax shock can also significantly reduce the consumption of coal in various sectors.The carbon tax policy has a negative effect on Guangdong’s GDP and social welfare,but a positive effect on the overall carbon emission intensity.In the future,Guangdong province should strictly control coal consumption and carry out lowcarbon transformation of thermal power sector.